$20000. That's how much less I would have, had I not sold all my stocks and mutual funds last November. I'm just going to leave it at that. This market is crazy. I bought a 5.2% 3 month CD today, that was an Ameritrade promotional.
My dishwasher broke, for good, yesterday, so I'm forced to replace it. I say 'for good' because I tend to patch up things, and get them to sort of work. My refrigerator has been quasi-broke for several years.
It couldn't have happened at a better time. I have an office chair I bought at the height of the dot-com bust. It cost me $80, at Staples. I went to Staples just before Christmas, and saw the same chair selling for about $250. Exactly the same chair.
Do you see where I'm going? It's surprising how much lower prices can go, when businesses have trouble moving their merchandise. I smell cheap appliances. I think this year will be a good one for replacing worn out appliances.
So, this may very well be the year that I catch up with the Joneses.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Rebalanced Portfolio
I dumped everything on November 13. I couldn't take the heat, and panicked. In retrospect, that wasn't such a bad decision, at least in the short term.
In less than 2 months, all but one of my holdings have fallen in value, some substantially.
Here's a breakdown:
XLE was 71.1/share, now it's at 76.85.
DNA was 74.18, now 70.11
DPCCX was 55.79, now 46.11
PRLAX was 57.01, now 51.93
JORNX was 12.83, now 12.16
CSCO was 28.28, now 26.24
INTC was 25.38, now 22.75
OIGAX was 32.35, now 29.72
MSIGX was 42.82, now 34.75
As you can see, my stocks were not terribly diversified, but still covered a number of sectors. In dollars, the net difference is $8087 in my favor. That's a lot of money, when you consider how little I had in the market. And what I keep asking myself is "why are people still buying stocks?" Are these people inexperienced or just forgetful? Whenever there's bad news like we keep hearing everyday, you don't supposed to buy stocks. When they use words like "Recession", "Inflation", "Meltdown", and "Sub-Prime" over and over again - the risk of buying stocks is more like the risk people take when they try to run across the train tracks in front of an oncoming train. You might make it, but if you don't, you stand to lose way more than you hoped to gain. But then again, I forget, people buy lotto tickets... I guess some of those guys dream big.
When you turn on the TV, and you watch some "expert" telling you you're in it for the long term. Remember that's what they're programmed to say. They've been saying it forever. Also remember that their livelihood, not yours, depends on you being in it for the long term. You better believe they won't do what they're telling you to do with their own money.
What happens now? My guess is right now is wait and see time, and that several months will have to pass before I will feel comfortable buying stocks again. I rebalanced my 401(k) so most of my retirement is in bonds and cash, and what money I don't have in a money market account, is in short term CDs. I feel better not having to worry about losing money, which I believe will happen to people who choose to invest in equities right now.
Oh, also, I'm considering refinancing, believe it or not!! But I think rates will go down, and we'll have more negotiating power in a, say, 4 to 9 months from now. Banks are gonna get desperate - for those of us who have solid credit. Right now I am able to get a 5.25% 15 year fixed rate loan - I'm still at 6.5% on my 30 year loan from 2001. I'm not happy with the $2200 'fees' and crap, however. The 15 year loan would cost $150 less per month than what I pay right now on my 30 year loan. That's what I'm waiting for to go way, way down. We'll see what happens with that.
In less than 2 months, all but one of my holdings have fallen in value, some substantially.
Here's a breakdown:
XLE was 71.1/share, now it's at 76.85.
DNA was 74.18, now 70.11
DPCCX was 55.79, now 46.11
PRLAX was 57.01, now 51.93
JORNX was 12.83, now 12.16
CSCO was 28.28, now 26.24
INTC was 25.38, now 22.75
OIGAX was 32.35, now 29.72
MSIGX was 42.82, now 34.75
As you can see, my stocks were not terribly diversified, but still covered a number of sectors. In dollars, the net difference is $8087 in my favor. That's a lot of money, when you consider how little I had in the market. And what I keep asking myself is "why are people still buying stocks?" Are these people inexperienced or just forgetful? Whenever there's bad news like we keep hearing everyday, you don't supposed to buy stocks. When they use words like "Recession", "Inflation", "Meltdown", and "Sub-Prime" over and over again - the risk of buying stocks is more like the risk people take when they try to run across the train tracks in front of an oncoming train. You might make it, but if you don't, you stand to lose way more than you hoped to gain. But then again, I forget, people buy lotto tickets... I guess some of those guys dream big.
When you turn on the TV, and you watch some "expert" telling you you're in it for the long term. Remember that's what they're programmed to say. They've been saying it forever. Also remember that their livelihood, not yours, depends on you being in it for the long term. You better believe they won't do what they're telling you to do with their own money.
What happens now? My guess is right now is wait and see time, and that several months will have to pass before I will feel comfortable buying stocks again. I rebalanced my 401(k) so most of my retirement is in bonds and cash, and what money I don't have in a money market account, is in short term CDs. I feel better not having to worry about losing money, which I believe will happen to people who choose to invest in equities right now.
Oh, also, I'm considering refinancing, believe it or not!! But I think rates will go down, and we'll have more negotiating power in a, say, 4 to 9 months from now. Banks are gonna get desperate - for those of us who have solid credit. Right now I am able to get a 5.25% 15 year fixed rate loan - I'm still at 6.5% on my 30 year loan from 2001. I'm not happy with the $2200 'fees' and crap, however. The 15 year loan would cost $150 less per month than what I pay right now on my 30 year loan. That's what I'm waiting for to go way, way down. We'll see what happens with that.
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